Total Fertility Rate in Russia: by year and by region, data 2026

2026-10-22 · Demography

The total fertility rate in Russia in 2024 equals 1.4: that is the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if she gave birth at the same rate at every age as women do today. In 2015 the indicator was 1.762, i.e. it fell by 20.5% over nine years. Below, using Rosstat data, we examine how it has changed, how the city and the countryside differ, at what age Russian women give birth most often, in which regions fertility is higher or lower, and what the official forecast promises. Each section has an interactive chart, and the full tables are available on the website.

What is the total fertility rate

The number of births per year depends on how many women of child‑bearing age are in the country. Therefore, a single figure of newborns does not reveal whether fewer births are due to a decline in births per woman or simply fewer women. The total fertility rate (also called TFR) removes this confusion. Rosstat takes the number of children born per year per thousand women at each age from 15 to 49 and sums these values. The result is a conditional number of children per woman.

To maintain the population size without migration, a little more than two children per woman are needed. Anything below that means each successive generation of parents is smaller than the previous one. In Russia the rate has been below this threshold for a long time, and today the discussion focuses on how much lower it is.

Total fertility rate in Russia by year

In 2025 a new edition of the collection "Health Care in Russia" was released, where the series is updated to 2024:

The sharpest decline occurred over the five years from 2015 to 2020: the rate lost 0.288. After that the decrease slowed. From 2020 to 2024 the drop was 0.074, and between 2023 and 2024 the difference is only 0.01. The figures show that fertility in recent years is not collapsing, but settling at a new, low level.

The series is in the table "How many children a woman gives birth to at different ages". For 2024 there is only the overall rate so far; Rosstat has not published age‑specific figures for that year. The total number of births per year and its dynamics over many years were examined separately in the article "Fertility in Russia by year".

City and Village: Where Births Are Higher

In cities the birth rate is consistently lower than in villages. Rosstat publishes a breakdown by settlement type:

The rural coefficient fell more sharply than the urban one. In 2015 the village outpaced the city by 0.39 child per woman, in 2023 by 0.22. The village lost 0.48 points, the city 0.31. Earlier the village’s birth rate differed noticeably from the city’s, now this difference is fading.

The data are taken from the table "Total fertility rate in Russia by settlements". Where the residents of villages go and how many remain, see the chart "Urban population by years".

At What Age Women Give Birth

The total fertility rate is composed of age‑specific rates. Let’s take the number of live births per 1,000 women in each age group:

Women aged 25-29 have the highest number of births, both in 2015 and in 2023. But the younger groups lost the most: in the under‑20 group fertility halved, and in the 20-24 group it fell by almost a third. After age 35 fertility changes little, and in the 40-44 group it even increased. Russian women give birth later than eight years ago, and fewer children.

The shift toward later motherhood does not offset the overall decline. The increase in the 40-44 group amounted to 1.4 children per 1,000 women, while the loss in the 25-29 group was almost 21 children per 1,000.

Total fertility rate by region

A caveat is needed here. The total fertility rate by subjects of the Federation is not available on the website. However, there is an overall fertility rate, i.e., the number of births per 1,000 residents. It is cruder because it depends on the age composition of the region: where there are many young people, it is higher. Yet the gap between regions illustrates this clearly.

In Russia as a whole, in 2025 there were 8.3 births per 1,000 population, in 2024 – 8.4. By region the picture is as follows:

Chechnya outpaces Leningrad Oblast by 3.8 times. Among federal districts, the highest is the North Caucasus with 12.8 births per 1,000, and the lowest is the Northwestern district with 7.4. The Central district shows 7.6, the Volga district 7.5, the Ural district 8.9, and the Far Eastern district 9.1.

Moscow stands out: in 2025 the fertility rate there rose from 8.7 to 9.0, while in Sverdlovsk Oblast it fell from 9.0 to 8.3. In Vladimir Oblast the indicator decreased over the year from 6.3 to 5.5, which is one of the sharpest declines.

The full table of 96 rows, including all autonomous okrugs, is in the collection "Fertility, mortality and marriage rates in the regions". A similar regional ranking by another indicator, infant mortality, shows how fertility relates to newborn health.

Comparison with Other Countries

Rosstat aggregates the total fertility rate for Russia and foreign countries. The years differ across countries, some have data for 2021‑2022, so the comparison is approximate:

Russia ends up in the same group as Germany and Azerbaijan: higher than Italy, Poland and China, lower than France and the United States. In Central Asia, fertility remains noticeably higher. All countries in the table are collected in the dataset "Total fertility rate in Russia and CIS countries".

What Fertility Rate Rosstat Expects

Rosstat has a demographic forecast up to 2045 in three scenarios:

The actual 2024 rate, 1.4, was higher than the medium scenario (1.321) and slightly below the high one (1.419). Even under the high scenario, the indicator will not reach two by 2045: 1.788. In the medium scenario, growth starts from 2025, but the pace is modest, about 0.01‑0.04 per year. This is a forecast, not a fact: it depends on assumptions about family policy, migration and maternal age.

The three scenarios are listed in the table "Forecast of total fertility rate by development scenarios". How this affects the overall population size was discussed in the article "Demography of Russia".

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the total fertility rate in Russia in 2026?

Data for 2026 are not yet available. The last published figure, 1.4, refers to 2024. For 2026 Rosstat has only a forecast: 1.303 in the low, 1.352 in the medium and 1.436 in the high scenario.

How does the total fertility rate differ from the crude rate?

The crude rate counts births per 1,000 residents (8.3 in 2025), the total fertility rate shows children per woman (1.4 in 2024). The first depends on the age structure of the population, the second is almost independent of it, so it is more convenient for comparing countries and years.

Where is the highest birth rate in Russia?

In Chechnya: 20.7 births per 1,000 residents in 2025. Followed by Tuva with 15.4, Ingushetia with 15.0 and Dagestan with 14.1.

Why is rural fertility declining faster than urban?

Rosstat records the fact itself: from 2015 to 2023 the countryside lost 0.48 points of the rate, the city 0.31. The reasons are not indicated in the tables. It is clear only that the gap between rural and urban fertility narrowed from 0.39 to 0.22.

In Brief

The total fertility rate in Russia over nine years fell from 1.762 to 1.4, with the pace of decline slowing in recent years. The countryside still births more than the city, but the gap is shrinking. Most children are born to women aged 25‑29, and the sharpest decline occurred among the youngest mothers. The regional gap is almost fourfold: from 20.7 births per 1,000 residents in Chechnya to 5.4 in Leningrad Oblast. According to Rosstat's forecast, by 2045 the rate will be between 1.464 and 1.788, meaning the population will not reach the replacement level in any scenario.

See Also

• Birth rate in Russia by year
• Demography of Russia
• Regional ranking by infant mortality

Source: Rosstat.